Morgan Stanley decodes the catalyst for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) stock price surging to $800: the game of AI and autonomous driving between China and the United States.

Recently, Wall Street financial giant Morgan Stanley released two heavyweight research reports, revealing that the global leader in electric vehicles and autonomous driving, AI humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation field, Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) has incredible potential for stock price increases. They reiterated their target price of $410 and the most bullish scenario target price of $800. As of Tuesday's closing in the US stock market, Tesla, Inc. closed at $343.820, indicating that Morgan Stanley's analysis team is very optimistic about the significant potential for Tesla, Inc.'s stock price to rise in the next 12 months. The Morgan Stanley analysis team led by Adam Jones predicts that Tesla, Inc. will become the most core beneficiary company in the AI era and the game of autonomous driving technology between China and the US. This is mainly based on the widespread adoption of FSD autonomous driving system, the fully autonomous Robotaxi taxi network, and the incredibly large AI humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation business - Morgan Stanley expects its market size to potentially far exceed the current global automotive market. The Morgan Stanley analysis team believes that Tesla, Inc.'s current high market value and valuation much higher than traditional car companies are difficult to support with traditional business profits. Investors generally only give their automotive business a valuation of $50-100 per share as a benchmark, which is similar to only seeing Amazon.com, Inc. as a regular online retailer or thinking of Apple Inc. as a hardware manufacturer. Morgan Stanley states that the core logic of Tesla, Inc.'s value lies in its "portfolio of cutting-edge startup businesses" - artificial intelligence large models, autonomous driving networks, AI humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation, battery power, energy storage, etc., which have future potential. With ChatGPT continuing to become popular worldwide and the new wave of AI led by DeepSeek, with a core focus on "extremely low cost" and matching OpenAI's "high energy efficiency", triggering a new wave of AI, large AI models are starting to deeply integrate into various industries such as healthcare, finance, education, as well as consumer electronics terminals, and human society is entering the AI era. In the view of Morgan Stanley, Tesla, Inc. with the Dojo AI supercomputer system and the Optimus Siasun Robot&Automation (Optimus Siasun Robot&Automation) system will be one of the largest beneficiaries. Tesla, Inc. has a world-class AI team, and the Grok series AI large models launched by AI's new force xAI founded and led by Musk himself may be deeply integrated with Tesla, Inc.'s AI supercomputing system in the future. Tesla, Inc. has developed the FSD (Fully Autonomous Driving), Dojo supercomputer, and customized AI chips. The FSD developed based on Tesla, Inc.'s Dojo AI supercomputing system, with the access to the most advanced Grok large model, is like "the brain experiencing a leveling up of intelligence", and it can also be a strong catalyst for Optimus, which needs to make rapid inference based on visual scenes in a very short time. In the view of Morgan Stanley, the long-term game between China and the US in the field of autonomous driving will also be a significant catalyst for the valuation and fundamental expansion of Tesla, Inc. Tesla, Inc. and traditional US car companies going "All-in Autonomous Driving" will be the inevitable choice to counter China's electric vehicle price war. With Tesla, Inc.'s long-term deep layout in the field of autonomous driving, and the relaxation of regulations on autonomous driving by the Trump administration, Tesla, Inc. is expected to help FSD auto-driving system penetrate into the American automotive manufacturers like the Detroit Big Three in a subscription mode. In addition, many industry insiders of America's Car-Mart, Inc. who have communicated with the Morgan Stanley analysis team are very willing to cooperate with Chinese electric vehicle companies, especially in bringing in their key manufacturing capabilities and autonomous driving technology to the US. With Tesla, Inc.'s enormously large US road mapping data and the continuously expanding AI data centers' computing power, it is possible for Tesla, Inc. to reach deep cooperation with Chinese electric vehicle or autonomous driving related companies on the sensitive issues of data and AI computing power, and Tesla, Inc. may also play a key role in adopting Chinese BEV manufacturing technology for localization in the US. The AI era has arrived, and Tesla, Inc. is expected to tap into one of the largest TAM markets in history." The "AI investment logic" has recently rekindled in the global stock market, or rather, the important logic for the rebound of the stock prices of the electric vehicle and autonomous driving leader Tesla, Inc., which has been continuously deepening in the field of AI since 2023, has regained global funds' focus and favor after positive consensus was reached on the US-China trade, as AI, the hottest investment theme globally since 2023, has reemerged. Tesla, Inc. led by the world's richest man Musk, has created a mature fully driverless version of FSD based on the Dojo AI supercomputer system, as well as a fully autonomous Robotaxi taxi system based on FSD, making Tesla, Inc. a long-term "hot AI concept stock". Tesla, Inc. continues to diversify its development into frontier technology fields such as artificial intelligence (AI) and "AI + humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation", which are also some of the reasons for the rebound in Tesla, Inc.'s stock price.Wall Street investment firms have a core logic of long-term bullishness on Tesla, Inc.'s stock price.From the capital movements of the asset management giant Invesco in the first quarter, it can be seen that especially favors Microsoft Corporation, NVIDIA Corporation, Amazon.com, Inc., and Tesla, Inc. This asset management giant is very approving of the "AI investment logic", that is, the strong and sustained demand in the market for AI computing power infrastructure and AI application software such as FSD is expected to drive the performance and valuation of related technology companies into a new round of growth trajectory. This is also the core logic of the seven technology giants deeply laying out AI leading the US stock market since 2023. The Morgan Stanley analysis team stated that considering Tesla, Inc. as a "combination of multiple startups" is a tricky issue for the public investors. Most of Tesla, Inc.'s current market value of around $1.1 trillion corresponds to business sectors that are either insufficiently disclosed, completely lacking public data, or yet to be truly launched. Managing such a business portfolio in the current market volatility and uncertainty is already risky. The even bigger challenge is: valuing these "revenue-less" businesses, which is why some public investors and traditional asset management giants have a cautious stance on Tesla, Inc. for the long term. However, in the view of the Morgan Stanley analysis team, Tesla, Inc.'s stock price still has the potential to reach the bullish price target of $800, provided that Tesla, Inc. achieves at least $20 in earnings per share (EPS), which requires Tesla, Inc. led by Musk to successfully implement its autonomous driving strategy in more areas beyond electric vehicles/Robo self-driving taxis. For example, based on the Dojo AI supercomputing system, the penetration rate of FSD is greatly expanded - Morgan Stanley expects that by the mid-2030s, the global number of Tesla, Inc. cars will be close to 50 million, with an average monthly income per vehicle of $100 (known as ARPU, possibly from FSD autonomous driving subscriptions, charging, connectivity features, upgrades, content services, used car sales, parts/services, software licenses, etc.), and even include the potential for the humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation developed by Tesla, Inc. in partnership with xAI to exceed expectations. When asked about the possibility of a merger between Tesla, Inc. and xAI, Musk said, "Anything is possible," although there is currently no such plan. He said, "It's not impossible, but obviously Tesla, Inc. shareholders must support it." In a live broadcast in January, Musk stated that xAI's AI chat Siasun Robot & Automation Grok will be included in Tesla, Inc.'s cars, but did not give a specific release date. The Morgan Stanley analysis team wrote in a research report: "Most automotive and Siasun Robot & Automation experts we talked to believe that the humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation market is much larger than the current global automotive market (TAM)." Morgan Stanley mentioned in the report that the global workforce is nearly 4 billion people, with an average annual salary of around $10,000 - equivalent to a labor market of about $40 trillion. If a humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation can be rented for $5/hour, it can replace two human workers earning $25/hour. Based on this calculation, the net present value (NPV) of each humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation is approximately $200,000. There are around 160 million workers in the US labor force. A conservative estimate is that replacing 1% of the workforce with humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation would create over $300 billion in value, equivalent to an increase of about $100 per share in Tesla, Inc.'s value. Therefore, the boost brought by the humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation to Tesla, Inc.'s future stock price and market value prospects can be described as remarkable. As we enter the era of AI, the market space that Tesla, Inc. is targeting in the future may be unprecedentedly vast, with the potential to open up the largest TAM market ever - the humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation. The Morgan Stanley analysis team provided the following 10 key insights: - As software becomes more "intelligently empowered", Siasun Robot & Automation are becoming the real agents of the physical world. - All electrified machines are equivalent to physical "sockets" of AI brains. - Any machine that can be automated will eventually be automated (maybe including yourself). - If a company can solve the problem of fully autonomous driving for cars, then the problem of autonomous operation for everything will be solved. - AI humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation is just one of thousands of embodiments of artificial intelligence. - In a more general sense, any machine that can collect photons, perceive the environment, learn, navigate, or control three-dimensional space belongs to the realm of embodied AI. - Embodied AI is closely linked to national security through its "dual-use" attributes. - Embodied AI may even form natural monopolies and public utility-like networks, with the potential market size reaching tens of trillions of dollars.Dollar calculation.Morgan Stanley's "embodied AI" mentioned, referring to the cutting-edge technology field of "AI humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation" represented by "AI humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation". Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft (Deutsche Bank), an international bank, recently stated in a research report that humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation will see large-scale production and widespread application in the next ten years; the Deutsche Bank analysis team predicts that by 2035, the market size of humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation is expected to reach 75 billion US dollars, and by 2050, the market size is expected to reach 1 trillion US dollars, with global sales potentially exceeding 70 million units. The competition between China and the US in the field of autonomous driving has begun, and Tesla, Inc. is expected to be the biggest beneficiary. The Morgan Stanley analysis team pointed out that Chinese manufacturers may have won the battle in electric vehicle hardware and vehicle manufacturing, while American manufacturers such as Tesla, Inc. are now heavily investing in the fierce competition in the field of autonomous driving software. According to Morgan Stanley, Xiaomi YU7 is just the latest sign that Chinese technology companies are bringing the performance and cost of electric vehicles to a whole new level. China may have already won the war in the field of electric vehicle manufacturing, so it is crucial to determine who between China and the US will ultimately win the competition in the field of autonomous driving. In Morgan Stanley's view, the long-term competition between China and the US in the field of autonomous driving will also be a major catalyst for the valuation and fundamental expansion of Tesla, Inc. Tesla, Inc. with the FSD system on board may become the strongest competitor in the autonomous driving field in China and even globally, against electric vehicle giants like Xiaomi and BYD Company Limited. Morgan Stanley emphasizes that with the revenue from fully autonomous FSD subscriptions and the growth in demand for Tesla, Inc. models, as well as the global deployment of Tesla, Inc.'s Robotaxi autonomous driving rental network, the valuation of Tesla, Inc. is expected to continue to expand. The Morgan Stanley analysis team mentioned in the research report, "We have not heard of any car industry CEOs who believe that Chinese electric vehicle technology can be completely blocked from the US market by relying solely on US government tariffs. Many industry insiders we have spoken to are very willing to cooperate with leading Chinese electric vehicle companies and introduce their key technologies in the US, but sensitive issues such as data and AI computing power need to be considered." For Tesla, Inc., with the immensely large US road mapping data exclusively owned by Tesla, Inc. cars on US roads, as well as the continuously expanding AI data centers' computing power, deep cooperation with Chinese electric vehicle or autonomous driving-related companies on data and AI computing power may pave the way for the entry of Chinese autonomous driving platforms into the US market, thereby bringing new revenue engines for Tesla, Inc. Morgan Stanley also stated that Western traditional car manufacturers are seeking new ways to increase US local production scale, improve capital efficiency, and reduce execution risks. Strategic cooperation with Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers is becoming attractive, with Tesla, Inc. being very likely to play a key role in accepting Chinese BEV manufacturing technology localization.