Guotai Haitong: Short-term precious metals and industrial metals prices may fluctuate, small metal mines may be relatively strong.

Guotai Haitong releases research report, stating that macro sentiment has shown some improvement, with gold prices under pressure in the second half of the week after May 8, and industrial metal prices rebounding. However, negotiations between China and the US will take time, Trump's policies are uncertain, and the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts to balance inflation and unemployment risks. In the short term, prices of precious metals and industrial metals may fluctuate. In terms of minor metals, with the deepening of global geopolitical games, the strategic position of tungsten resources will increasingly stand out, supply controls may gradually strengthen, and the mining end may operate on the strong side. Guotai Haitong's main points are as follows: Precious Metals: Postponement of interest rate cuts & macro sentiment temporarily slowing down, gold prices under pressure On May 8, the Federal Reserve announced to maintain the federal funds target range between 4.25% and 4.50%, in line with market expectations, with the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged for three consecutive times. The FOMC policy statement added the description of "increased risks of rising inflation and unemployment rates." Market data from CME Group show that the market expects the Federal Reserve to restart interest rate cuts in July. Meanwhile, as China-US trade consultations begin and the UK-US trade agreement is finalized, market sentiment has improved slightly, causing pressure on gold prices. Looking ahead, uncertainties in Trump's policies, possible reshaping of global trade patterns and monetary systems, ongoing de-dollarization processes, and high central bank demand for gold continue to exist as long-term bullish factors for gold prices. The Federal Reserve still has sufficient room for interest rate cuts, providing strong support for gold prices. Benefiting stocks: Shandong Gold Mining, Shanjin International Gold, etc. Industrial Metals: Real pressures still exist, industrial products may fluctuate China-US trade talks have started, and with the first domestic reserve requirement cut and interest rate cuts this year, the potential to stimulate demand and expand domestic consumption has been enhanced, with frequent positive factors at the macro level. Although entering the traditional off-peak consumption season, real pressures on industrial metals have increased, and China-US negotiations will take time. However, looking at the whole year, most industrial metals supply remains relatively tight, and geopolitical risks in the resource game under uncertainties can intensify disturbances on the supply side. In the second half of the year, domestic and foreign policies are expected to adopt a loose tone, providing opportunities for industrial metals in fluctuation. Minor Metals: Tungsten's strategic position highlighted, mining end operating on the strong side As a national strategic resource, tungsten's exploitation and utilization are controlled by national indicators, with limited supply. With the deepening of global geopolitical games, the strategic position of tungsten resources will gradually become prominent, and the mining end may maintain strong operation. Although there is limited incremental demand in the short term, as China's manufacturing industry recovers and exports improve, the supply-demand mismatch for tungsten may continue, leading to stable growth in tungsten prices. At the same time, the industry continues to adjust its structure and upgrade towards high-end, with significant space for domestic substitution in downstream areas such as tungsten tools, which is expected to drive profit growth for related production enterprises in the industry. Risk Warning: downstream demand weaker than expected, significant supply surges, Federal Reserve's interest rate cut process slower than expected, etc.