Guosen: International potash fertilizer prices continue to rise, while phosphate rock prices remain high.

Guosen released a research report stating that under the rigid demand background of Shenzhen Agricultural Power Group globally, the supply and demand equilibrium of potash fertilizer continues, combined with the scarcity of phosphate ore resources becoming more prominent, recommending paying attention to structural investment opportunities in the agricultural chemical sector. China, as the world's largest potassium fertilizer demand country, will have a chloride potassium import dependence exceeding 60% by 2024, with a year-on-year decrease of 45.45% in port inventories; the prosperity of the phosphate chemical industry depends on the prosperity of phosphate ore prices, and it is optimistic that the long-term price center of phosphate ore will remain at a relatively high level; the supply and demand situation remains relatively tight, with prices for 30% concentration maintaining over 900 yuan per ton for over two years. In April, spring planting in various regions entered the final stage one after another, with a slight decrease in demand for phosphate compound fertilizer. Guosen's main points are as follows: The supply and demand equilibrium of potash fertilizer, with international potash fertilizer prices continuously rising China is the world's largest potassium fertilizer demand country, while potassium fertilizer resources supply is relatively insufficient, with an import dependence exceeding 60%. By 2024, China's chloride potassium production will be 5.5 million tons, a decrease of 2.7% year-on-year, with imports of 12.63 million tons, an increase of 9.1% year-on-year, reaching a historical high. By the end of April 2025, domestic potassium fertilizer port stocks were 1.9111 million tons, a decrease of 1.5921 million tons from the same period last year, a decrease of 45.45%. In the future, as food production security is increasingly emphasized, it is expected that the domestic potassium fertilizer safety stock will increase to over 4 million tons. In April, with the spring planting in various regions coming to an end, the domestic chloride potassium market showed weak supply and demand, with prices gradually declining. The spot price of Bichuan Yingfu fell from 3044 yuan per ton at the beginning of the month to 2956 yuan per ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 2.89%. Internationally, the price of potash fertilizer in April maintained an upward trend, with significant regional differentiation. The markets in Europe, Asia, and Africa were supported by tight supplies from Russia and Belarus and risks in the Red Sea shipping market, with the onshore price of chloride potassium in Southeast Asia and Brazil breaking through $360 per ton CFR, and premium prices continuing to widen in the South African market. The prosperity of the phosphate chemical industry depends on the prosperity of phosphate ore prices, with optimistic expectations for long-term high prices of phosphate ore In the past two years, the grade of exploitable phosphate ore in China has decreased, with increased difficulty and cost in mining, and a relatively long time period for the introduction of new production capacity. At the same time, demand for downstream new fields represented by lithium iron phosphate continues to grow, leading to a relatively tight supply and demand situation for domestic phosphate ore, with the scarcity of phosphate ore resources becoming increasingly prominent. The market price of 30% grade phosphate ore has been operating in the high price range of over 900 yuan per ton for more than two years. According to Bichuan Yingfu, as of April 30, 2025, the shipboard price of 30% grade phosphate ore in Hubei was 1040 yuan per ton including taxes, unchanged from the end of the previous month, while the market delivery price of 30% grade phosphate ore in Yunnan was 970 yuan per ton, up by 20 yuan per ton from the end of the previous month. As the peak season of spring planting demand gradually comes to an end, phosphate fertilizer prices fluctuate narrowly In April, spring planting in various regions entered the final stage, with a slight decrease in demand for phosphate compound fertilizers; sulfur prices decreased by 2.84%, synthetic ammonia prices decreased by 9.29%, phosphate ore prices remained high, leading to a reduction in the production cost of phosphate fertilizers; the monthly production of monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate both decreased month-on-month, with relatively low absolute inventory levels. As of April 30, the reference price of monoammonium phosphate in China was 3251 yuan per ton, a year-on-year increase of 14.55% and a month-on-month decrease of 1.96%; the price difference for monoammonium phosphate was around 45.83 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1.56 yuan per ton from the previous month. The reference price of diammonium phosphate in China was 3526 yuan per ton, down by 3.53% from last year, and up by 0.20% from the previous month; the price difference for diammonium phosphate was approximately -135.49 yuan per ton, an increase of 93.00 yuan per ton from the previous month. Risks include safety production and environmental protection risks; risks of phosphate chemical product demand falling short of expectations; market risks caused by capacity expansion; risks of fluctuations in raw material prices.