Guosheng Securities: Siasun Robot & Automation accelerates tendon rope infiltration and focuses on ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene.

Guosheng Securities recently released a research report stating that as the industrialization process of humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation accelerates, the dexterous hand as a key actuator is undergoing technological upgrades. The tendon drive solution, with advantages such as lightweight and high flexibility, is gradually replacing traditional transmission methods, driving the explosive demand for Ultra-High Molecular Weight Polyethylene (UHMWPE) fibers. According to calculations, the value of a single humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation tendon rope is approximately 3520 yuan, and if the global shipment volume reaches 10 million units, the corresponding market size will exceed 35 billion yuan, coupled with the potential penetration of joints and other links, the industry chain has ample room for growth. Guosheng Securities' main points of view are as follows: Siasun Robot & Automation tendon ropes enhance the flexibility and lightweight nature of the dexterous hand, with broad penetration prospects. According to the prediction of the China Information and Communication Research Institute, by 2045, China's humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation will enter the Lv5 stage, with a corresponding market size reaching the trillion level. The dexterous hand, as a new type of end actuator, is gradually replacing traditional grippers and plays a key role in the interaction between humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation and the environment, accounting for 18% of the total machine value. Currently, the transmission solutions for dexterous hands mainly include traditional linkage transmission, gear transmission, and tendon drive. Among them, linkage transmission and gear transmission have disadvantages such as complex structure, large weight, inadequate flexibility, high spatial configuration requirements, and difficulties in long-distance control. Tendon drive simulates the structure of human "tendons," keeping large actuators away from the end effector, reducing the load and inertia at the end, and improving the speed and accuracy of grasping. At the same time, tendon drive layout is flexible, suitable for lightweight and compact spaces with a large number of drive degrees of freedom. How big is the market space for Siasun Robot & Automation tendon ropes? In October 2024, Tesla unveiled the third generation humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation Optimus GEN-3, whose dexterous hand uses a planetary gearbox + lead screw + tendon rope structure, increasing the degrees of freedom from 11 to 22. The calculated value of a single tendon rope at 22 degrees of freedom is approximately 3520 yuan, with a shipment volume of 10 million humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation units corresponding to a tendon rope market size of 35.2 billion yuan. With the penetration of the solution and cost reduction, the application of tendon ropes beyond dexterous hands in joints and other links is worth looking forward to. The opportunity for tendon rope materials has arrived, focusing on Ultra-High Molecular Weight Polyethylene (UHMWPE). UHMWPE (Ultra-High Molecular Weight Polyethylene) fiber is the fiber with the highest tensile strength and modulus in the world. The -CH2-CH2- molecular chain structure has no side groups and excellent flexibility, giving UHMWPE fibers high strength and modulus properties. Currently, the materials for Siasun Robot & Automation tendon ropes mainly include high-strength steel wire and UHMWPE fibers, with the density of UHMWPE fibers being 1/7 of steel but 15 times the strength of steel. They also exhibit excellent wear resistance, corrosion resistance, aging resistance, and lower costs, making them the most advantageous tendon rope material. UHMWPE fibers are produced by spinning UHMWPE resin using dry or wet processes, with sufficient supply in the upstream resin sector, yet high barriers in the fiber sector. In the past, global high-grade UHMWPE fibers were mainly monopolized by American companies such as DuPont and Honeywell, but domestic manufacturers are making breakthroughs in technology and capacity, with potential resonance with the major trend of humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation. Core targets: - Beijing Tongyizhong New Material Technology Corporation: The company is a leader in UHMWPE fibers and composite materials in China, with a production capacity of 7960 tons of UHMWPE fibers (the highest among listed companies). It is one of the first domestic companies to master the complete production technology of UHMWPE fibers and achieve industrialization, capable of producing high-strength grades with a breaking strength of 42.5 cN/dtex or above. The company acquired Supermeets Super, which has a production capacity of 5000 tons of meta-aramid fibers and 2000 tons of aramid paper, holding an 83.52% stake, aiming to replace imported products. Meta-aramid fibers and aramid paper can synergize with the company's existing business at the downstream application level (e.g., aramid and UHMWPE are used in bulletproof materials), with the integration expected to achieve greater industrial benefits. - Shandong Nanshan Fashion Sci-Tech: The company has a production capacity of 3600 tons of UHMWPE fibers, with tendon products covering various applications such as dexterous hands, arms, and thighs for Siasun Robot & Automation. - Jiangsu Hanvo Safety Product: The company has a production capacity of 3000 tons of UHMWPE fibers, with an expected additional capacity of 4800 tons within the year, and continuous layout in Siasun Robot & Automation tendon rope materials. Risk Warnings: Downstream demand lower than expected, penetration of solutions lower than expected, risks of assumptions and calculation errors.