Hong Kong Stocks Concept Tracking | May Day travel heat continues to rise! The number of domestic tour bookings soared by more than 100%, institutions said that the tourism market's beta continues (with concept stocks attached)

With the approaching of the "May Day" holiday, the heat of the tourism market continues to rise. Since last week, the online hotel search volume and flight search volume have increased significantly, marking the peak booking period for the "May Day" holiday. Data shows that as of now, the number of bookings for domestic travel during the "May Day" holiday has increased by over 100% compared to the same period last year. Among them, the booking growth of products such as self-driving tours, independent travel, and group tours is particularly significant. In addition, the core business of online travel platforms such as hotels and tickets has increased by over 70%. The "work 4 days off 11 days" super long holiday mode has further driven the booking of long-distance travel. Kaiyuan Securities stated that the consumption of tourism during the May Day holiday presents three major characteristics: "long-distance travel rapidly increasing, cross-border two-way warming, and county-level counterattack", the sinking market tourism consumption contributes structural increment, and the tourism market continues to grow. Recently, Ctrip released the "May Day Travel Forecast Report", which shows that this year's holiday travel consumption features "long-distance outbreak, cross-border two-way warming, and county-level counterattack". With the promotion of the "work 4 days off 11 days" holiday strategy, the proportion of cross-city accommodation orders has exceeded 80%, and the consumption of high-star hotels in county-level markets has surpassed that of top-tier cities, with inbound travel orders increasing by 173% year-on-year, and the entire population launching a "holiday economy new trend". Ctrip data shows that in the past week, the search volume for domestic hotels has increased by 100% compared to the previous week, and the search volume for flights has soared by 80%. The report shows that as of April 17, the overall search volume for domestic hotels during the May Day period is on par with the same period last year and continues to rise. Currently, domestic flight bookings have significantly increased compared to last year, and the average airfare per person is more attractive. Ctrip's research institute has observed that stable and cost-effective airfares stimulate more users to unlock the "freedom to fly" by spending a small amount of money to travel far away. Long-distance travel is recovering, with the proportion of cross-city accommodation orders exceeding 80%. The "work 4 days off 11 days" arrangement of this super long holiday has further stimulated the booking of long-distance travel. Compared to the Tomb-Sweeping Day holiday, the May Day Golden Week sees a significant extension in the distance traveled by tourists. The proportion of cross-city accommodation orders during the May Day period has exceeded 80%, and the percentage of deep travel users staying for two days or more is expected to reach 20%. As of now, traditional popular cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Guangzhou, Chongqing, Xi'an, Wuhan, and Qingdao continue to lead the list of domestic destinations. Far-flung tourist cities such as Taiyuan, Foshan, Yili, Guiyang, and Lingshui have emerged as rising stars, taking the top five spots in hotel popularity growth. Long-distance travel destinations have seen a significant year-on-year increase, with tourism orders in Haikou and Yining increasing by over 130%, Sanya by 54%, and Jiuzhaigou, Taiyuan, and Shangri-La all growing by over 50%. According to the "2025 May Day Travel Trend Report" released by UTour Group, this year's domestic and outbound tourism is characterized by "two-way growth", with deep travel and vacation travel becoming new engines for the tourism market. As of April 15, UTour Group's retail data shows that GMV (total transaction amount) has increased by approximately 65% compared to the same period last year, and the variety of products has increased by 55.25% compared to the same period last year. It is expected that UTour Group's customer volume during the May Day Golden Week in 2025 will exceed 20,000. From a domestic perspective, Guangxi, Gansu, Yunnan, Guizhou, and Hainan are the top five popular destinations for this holiday. UTour Group believes that as destinations continue to attract visitors, the market heat of the 2025 May Day Golden Week is expected to reach a historical high. In addition, the "2025 May Day Travel Trend Insight Report" released by TONGCHENGTRAVEL predicts that the travel heat during the 2025 May Day holiday may reach its peak since 2023, and the peak travel period is expected to occur in the two days leading up to the holiday. Meituan Travel data also shows that the peak travel season for the May Day holiday is expected to start on April 26, with the super long holiday fueling domestic long-distance travel, boosting multiple domestic cultural and tourism markets. It is worth noting that on April 27, the Ministry of Commerce and 6 other departments issued a notice on further optimizing the export tax rebate policy and expanding inbound consumption. The notice states that the minimum refund amount for outbound tax refunds has been lowered. If foreign visitors purchase refundable items worth RMB 200 in the same store on the same day and meet other relevant regulations, they can apply for an export tax refund. The payment services for outbound tax refunds have been optimized, with the cash refund limit raised to RMB 20,000. CITIC SEC previously pointed out that optimizing policies such as "buy now refund upon departure" for outbound tax refunds will help to promote inbound tourism growth and enhance inbound shopping, stimulating domestic consumption markets. Referring to the development of Japan's tax refund policies, policy optimization has significantly driven growth in inbound tourism and sales through tax refund channels. According to calculations, there is vast market space for outbound tax refunds in the medium to long term. Recommendations include focusing on tourism retail operators, tourism service providers, consumer infrastructure and related operators, tourist attractions, and cross-border ecological service providers. Huajin Securities stated that benefiting from holiday consumption drive and expected improvement in residents' income, coupled with the frequent issuance of consumer vouchers and local consumption promotion activities, the consumption potential of the food and beverage industry is expected to continue to be released in the near term; the approaching May Day holiday is expected to increase railway and civil aviation business order volume, and if the passenger flow remains high during the holiday period, industries such as tourism, hotels, and catering are expected to significantly benefit. Related concept stocks: Ctrip Group (09961): Zhongtai pointed out that with the shift in demand structure brought about by income growth, most consumer goods cannot outpace the overall economic market. However, as part of high-level consumption, travel and tourism continue to expand the share of residents' wallets, making Ctrip's growth prospects likely to keep pace with or even exceed economic growth in the long term, which is relatively rare. In addition, outbound travel and the international OTA business that the group is actively investing in are expected to further enhance the group's growth potential, positioning Ctrip's growth trajectory in the medium to long term ahead of many Internet platforms. Huazhu Group (01179): Previously, Daiwa published a research report stating that Huazhu Group's adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter of the 2024 fiscal year increased by 10% year-on-year, roughly in line with market expectations. Considering the faster-than-expected expansion of the hotel network, the bank raised its EBITDA forecast for Huazhu Group for the 2025 to 2026 fiscal years by 1% to 2%, and H-shares wereThe target price has been raised from 27.5 Hong Kong dollars to 31.5 Hong Kong dollars, maintaining an "outperform" rating.China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation (01880): Huatai pointed out that looking ahead 25 years, the orderly restoration of port passenger flow will continue to contribute to revenue growth, rental adjustments and category optimization may drive profit improvement, and the company's operations are expected to remain stable. Based on the long term, the company's leading position is solid, emphasizing the optimization of operational capabilities. If Hainan closes and lands, it is expected to take on the incremental demand with its scale and experiential advantages. The new policy of opening stores in the city creates growth opportunities, and China Duty Free, with 6 existing stores, has shown a clear first-mover advantage, with store renovations completed in 25 years expected to increase performance.