Tianfeng: 1Q25 home appliance exports continue double-digit growth, North American channel replenishment solidifies export fundamentals.

Tianfeng released a research report stating that the market has entered the period of annual and first quarter performance reports, and the strong performance of the household appliances sector and the continuously rising dividend levels in recent years are expected to drive the industry's stock prices higher. In terms of domestic sales, the air conditioning industry is expected to enter a peak season in April and the major promotion period in May, leading to further strengthening of end retail sales. Recommended targets include major appliances such as Midea Group Co., Ltd(000333.SZ), Gree Electric Appliances, Inc. of Zhuhai(000651.SZ), HAIER SMARTHOME(600690.SH), Hisense Home Appliances Group(000921.SZ); small appliances such as Zhejiang Supor(002032.SZ), Shanghai Flyco Electrical Appliance(603868.SH); visual appliances such as Hisense Visual Technology(600060.SH); other household appliances recommended are Zhejiang Dun'an Artificial Environment(002011.SZ), and it is suggested to pay attention to Shanxi Huaxiang Group(603112.SH); kitchen appliances such as Hangzhou Robam Appliances(002508.SZ). Tianfeng's text reads as follows: Household appliance export data: In 25M3 terms, China's domestic household appliance exports amounted to 64.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14% (compared to a 14% increase in the total export market during the same period); in US dollar terms, China's domestic household appliance exports amounted to 9 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 13% (compared to a 12% increase in the total export market during the same period). In 25Q1 terms, China's domestic household appliance exports amounted to 173.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10% (compared to a 7% increase in the total export market during the same period); in US dollar terms, China's domestic household appliance exports amounted to 24.2 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 9% (compared to a 6% increase in the total export market during the same period). According to the spokesperson of the General Administration of Customs, there is still good resilience in international market demand: The global manufacturing PMI averaged 49.9% in 25Q1, higher than in 24Q4 and the same period last year. In March, manufacturing in Asia and Africa expanded, consumer spending in the EU and the UK increased month-on-month, and consumer confidence indices remained relatively stable. In the first quarter, China's exports to more than 170 countries and regions all achieved growth. In terms of household appliances, despite the impact of the US tariff increase, the export growth rate in March rebounded significantly, and the sector's growth continues to be driven by volume. The average export price continues to decline year-on-year (China's domestic household appliance export volume in 25M3 maintains a high growth of +20%, with a year-on-year decline of 5% in the renminbi price). By category: In 25Q1, the export amounts of major categories such as white goods, kitchen appliances, small household appliances, and color TVs maintained a positive growth trend. Among them, white goods had the fastest export growth, with a year-on-year increase of 23% (air conditioning/refrigeration/washing machine exports increased by +32%/+15%/+7% respectively). By region: In the US region, the first quarter's white goods export growth rate reached 15%, leading other categories. In the EU region, except for color TV categories, the export amounts of major categories in Q1 maintained good growth. In the Latin American region, core household appliance categories achieved high export growth in the first quarter, with white goods/small household appliances categories showing impressive growth, with year-on-year increases of +46%/+18% respectively. In South Asia/Southeast Asia, white goods and color TV categories performed well in the first quarter, with year-on-year growth rates of +25%/+17% respectively. Inventory side: In terms of durable consumer goods inventory and orders in the US, since 21Q3, US durable consumer goods inventory (excluding CPI impact) has continued to decline year-on-year. Despite concerns about tariffs leading to a rush in export orders since 24Q4, by the end of Q4, US durable consumer goods inventory still declined by about 5% year-on-year, remaining relatively low. In the North American channel, the inventory-sales ratio of major channels in North America in 24Q4 showed some improvement compared to 23Q4, and channel replenishment is expected to support the improvement of domestic household appliance companies' export data. Weekly trend of household appliance sector: This week (4/21-4/25), the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 0.38%, the ChiNext Index rose by 1.74%, and the Small and Medium Enterprise Board Index rose by 2.13%, while the household appliance sector rose by 1.89%. Looking at the sub-sectors, the price changes of white goods, visual appliances, and small household appliances were +1.63%, +0.37%, +3.67% respectively. Among individual stocks, the top five gainers this week were HyUnion Holding, Shenzhen Crastal Technology, Wuxi Hodgen Technology, Whirlpool, and Ecovacs Robotics; the top five decliners were Cnlight Co., Ltd, Zhejiang Sanfer Electric, Jiangsu Yinhe Electronics, Hisense Visual Technology, and Zhejiang Supor. Trend of raw material prices: On April 25, 2025, the closing price of copper futures was 77,650 yuan per ton, an increase of +1.88% compared to last week and +5.22% since the beginning of the year; the closing price of aluminum futures was 20,090 yuan per ton, an increase of +1.54% compared to last week and +1.64% since the beginning of the year; China's plastic city price index was 840.6, a decrease of -0.65% compared to last week and -5.47% since the beginning of the year. On April 18, 2025, the comprehensive steel price index was 92.58, a decrease of -0.15% compared to last week and -5.02% since the beginning of the year.