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Wheat futures prices rose as the weakening outlook for Russian wheat exports intensified market concerns about global supply. Continued disruptions to shipping in the Black Sea region are constraining export shipments from this key grain-producing area. Russian agricultural consultancy IKAR lowered its forecast for Russia's wheat exports in the 2026-27 season from 42 million tons to 39.5 million tons. Following the news, the benchmark Chicago wheat futures contract rose as much as 0.7%, ending a two-day losing streak. In addition, the agency also cut its forecast for Russia's total grain exports from 52.8 million tons to 49.5 million tons. Futures International said that remaining capacity on rail transport and Baltic Sea routes is currently limited, while traditional Black Sea routes are blocked by instability, prompting Russian exporters to increasingly turn to rail, Baltic ports and container shipping; the seasonal closure of inland waterway shipping in mid-November could put further pressure on the rail network, tightening export capacity further and driving up logistics costs in winter; the slow pace of U.S. exports, combined with competition from other suppliers, is also limiting the upside for wheat prices.
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