CITIC Securities' Ming Ming: Economic recovery with fluctuations; rate cuts may come in the second half of next year.

Ming Ming, Chief Economist of CITIC Securities, said in a speech at the CITIC Securities 2027 Capital Market Strategy Conference that the global economy shows an obvious K-shaped divergence, China's economy is recovering with fluctuations, and China's GDP growth in 2027 may be around 4.5%. Consumption is expected to warm up moderately, with retail sales of goods shifting toward smart products, and social retail sales growth in 2027 is expected to be about 1%; macro policy will be more proactive, fiscal policy is expected to expand moderately, and the deficit ratio will remain at 4.0%, while on the monetary policy side, an interest rate cut may come in the second half of the year; the RMB exchange rate is expected to appreciate moderately, with the RMB likely to strengthen moderately to around 6.4-6.5 in 2027, and the process of RMB internationalization may be expected to accelerate during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period.