JPMorgan's Latest Macro Outlook: Continue Betting on a Steepening U.S. Treasury Curve and High-Yielding Currencies; Beware of Divergence Between Oil Market Supply and Demand

Zhito Finance APP has learned that JPMorgan, in a research report released recently, provided an outlook on the macroeconomic environment including global interest rates, foreign exchange, commodities, and emerging markets. JPMorgan believes that recent remarks by Fed Chair Warsh support a moderate decline in short-end yields and a steeper yield curve, and therefore continues to hold long positions in the 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury curve steepener trade. The outcome of the U.S. midterm elections may affect the dollar in different directions, but the overall policy impact is limited, and the relative advantage of U.S. equities is expected to continue to provide support for the dollar. As long as there is no obvious volatility shock or economic growth shock, relatively large global interest rate differentials will continue to provide medium-term support for carry trades. In commodities, focus on energy supply chain disruptions, downside risks to copper prices, and weather changes in South America. Emerging markets, meanwhile, face multiple tests from energy prices, financing costs, and fiscal pressure.