Goldman Sachs previews the U.S. midterm elections: Democrats are likely to win the House, with fiscal policy, tariffs, and AI regulation becoming key battlegrounds.

Zhito Finance APP has learned that Goldman Sachs released a US economic analysis report on November 1, pointing out that the core focus of the November 3 midterm elections is: prediction markets show the probability of Democrats winning a majority in the House of Representatives exceeds 90%, while control of the Senate remains uncertain; if Democrats take the House, fiscal deadlines such as the December 11 expiration of spending authorization and the 2027 debt ceiling will become major legislative battlegrounds. The report also notes that the probability of major fiscal policy changes in the next two years is not high, but spending may increase slightly under a Democratic victory scenario; on tariffs, Democrats will cut some tariffs to a limited extent, which is expected to be insufficient to offset the impact of new tariffs imposed by Trump after the midterm elections, and the overall US tariff level may still rise; the data center issue may cool after the election, while AI regulation and state-level restrictions remain worthy of attention.