Goldman Sachs: Rising oil prices begin to trigger concerns about U.S. economic growth; expects the Fed to raise rates once more in December.

Goldman Sachs noted that as Brent crude oil prices rose about 6% this week to $117 per barrel, market attention toward high oil prices is shifting from inflation pressure to economic growth risks. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell below 5% for the first time since the Fed's September rate hike, reflecting growing investor concerns about the economic outlook. Goldman Sachs believes that current inflation pressure remains transitory and expects the Fed to raise rates once more at its December meeting, but there is also a possibility that it will stop further rate hikes. Meanwhile, the market continues to question the sustainability of AI infrastructure investment, with the semiconductor and chip equipment sectors posting double-digit declines since October, while large technology companies such as Microsoft have performed relatively steadily. Goldman Sachs noted that with Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft about to report earnings, the market will further test the profitability outlook for AI investment. Currently, the market expects S&P 500 constituent companies' third-quarter earnings per share to grow 27% year over year, with the median company's growth at about 9%.