Guotai Haitong's Yu Bo: Moderate RMB appreciation will not affect export resilience.

Since the beginning of the year, although the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has strengthened overall, exports have remained relatively robust. In this regard, Yu Bo, Chief Macro Analyst at Guotai Haitong, stated that RMB appreciation against the US dollar does not mean simultaneous appreciation against the currencies of all trading partners, and weak domestic inflation is also buffering the pressure of real appreciation. The shift of exports toward goods with higher technological content and lower substitutability, combined with the natural hedge formed by imported intermediate goods, has weakened the sensitivity of exports to exchange rates. The growing popularity of RMB settlement and foreign exchange hedging has reduced the transmission of exchange rate fluctuations to corporate operations. Moderate RMB appreciation will not affect the resilience of exports; the historical coexistence of exchange rate appreciation and market share gains stems more from improved industrial competitiveness.