Shenwan Hongyuan's Zhao Wei: The economy will achieve an "N-shaped" recovery.

In the third quarter of 2026, GDP grew 4.5% year on year. In response, Zhao Wei, chief economist at Shenwan Hongyuan, said the domestic economy will undergo an "N-shaped" recovery, with the fourth quarter expected to show exports maintaining high growth and domestic demand recovering marginally. September economic data showed marginal improvement, including external demand and domestic demand indicators. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, the economy is expected to maintain a moderate recovery trend. On exports, the short-term impact of China-EU trade disruptions is limited, and supported by the AI boom and the U.S. import recovery cycle, exports are expected to maintain high growth. On investment, financing pressure on real estate developers may continue to drag on property investment, but with the accelerated implementation of existing domestic policies, combined with factors such as the notable decline in the share of debt swaps in special bonds since August and the lagged support from earlier profit improvements, overall investment is expected to continue recovering in the fourth quarter. On consumption, household consumption is expected to continue its moderate recovery, with overall consumption forecast to be broadly stable.