UBS: It is expected that by 2027, its share of global HBM total demand will reach 39%.

UBS forecasts that the HBM4 architecture will become the mainstream memory standard, with its share of total global HBM demand expected to reach 39% in 2027, up from an estimated 17% in 2026. As the new generation of AI accelerators is gradually deployed, the market share of HBM3E 12-Hi will shrink from an expected 65% in 2026 to 30% in 2027. This round of technological iteration is driving advanced packaging and customized logic base dies into mass production, pushing up foundries' actual transaction prices. UBS estimates that the demand share of HBM3E 8-Hi will recover from 8% in 2026 to 17% in 2027; the new-generation HBM4E will capture a 9% share, while the older HBM3 will shrink to 5%. NVIDIA's VR300 accelerator adopts an 8-Hi stacking solution, reflecting the industry's selective reduction of memory stacking specifications. The main execution risks come from foundries' base die manufacturing and substrate yields; once a capacity bottleneck emerges, it will hinder the implementation of HBM4 and at the same time cause overcapacity of older HBM3E.