Huatai Securities: Peak season to catalyze price improvement, focus on oil shipping and express delivery

Huatai Securities research report states that looking ahead to October, it is recommended to focus on two core themes: rising shipping freight rates and earnings recovery, while allocating to passenger transport prosperity and high-dividend names. In shipping, repeated Middle East tensions are pushing up geopolitical risk premiums, and combined with the traditional peak season, freight rates are expected to continue rising; in express delivery, "anti-involution" and the peak season are expected to jointly drive price increases, and the industry's per-ticket profitability and valuation are expected to recover. In terms of allocation direction, the staggered timing of the two holidays is driving divergence in passenger transport prosperity, with railway passenger transport leading during the National Day holiday; high-dividend highways still have allocation value; at the same time, the resilience of air cargo prosperity and the medium- to long-term improvement in hazardous chemicals logistics are viewed favorably. In addition, expectations for the air passenger transport sector are currently low, and a subsequent decline in oil prices may become an important catalyst.