Cui Dongshu: Analysis of Market Value Changes of Listed Automobile Manufacturers - September

Cui Dongshu wrote that in the September global automotive stock market capitalization, the worst performers were new forces and crossover carmakers. Tesla, buoyed by AI and FSD, still has a market value of 9.4 trillion. But domestic automakers are basically all declining: BYD, Geely, and Great Wall fell 31% year-on-year, while phone-based car companies such as Xiaomi and Seres were directly halved, down 59%. The new forces were even worse, falling 58% year-on-year. Behind this is profit being squeezed from both ends. In August, automotive industry profits looked to have repaired somewhat month-on-month, but the cumulative total for the first eight months still fell 17%. Upstream materials such as chips and nonferrous metals rose in price, while downstream price wars continued, leaving automakers uncomfortably caught in the middle. Commercial vehicles, however, were an exception. Supported by subsidies and trade-in policies, they were much more resilient than passenger vehicles, falling only 7% year-on-year. This shows that the market is not applying a one-size-fits-all approach to all auto stocks, and everyone is still willing to pay for segmented tracks with a clear incremental logic. Put simply, the capital market is now quite pessimistic about the consumer side. Sales volume and transformation results have become the core pricing logic, and companies strong in new energy and exports are clearly more favored.