CITIC Construction Investment: The destocking of lithium carbonate is accelerating, and the fundamentals are signaling a rebound in pricing.

CITIC Construction Investment Securities' research report believes that lithium prices have already accounted for excessive surplus expectations for next year. Currently, the fundamental situation remains tense for raw materials, and lithium salt production has not yet recovered due to production cuts and maintenance at smelting plants. As the peak season of September and October approaches, inventory reduction has begun to accelerate. With expectations of a consumption peak season, downstream stocking is likely to marginally increase. According to a sample survey of 27 battery companies by Baichuan Yingfu, China's total battery production capacity is projected to reach 311.85 GWh in August 2026, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 5.71%, and is expected to continue to accelerate thereafter. Lithium prices may gradually shift from previously surplus-based pricing to being driven by current fundamentals, and we are optimistic about lithium price performance in the peak season.