Shen Hao from Industrial Securities: The liquor sector is expected to in the third quarter.
Shen Hao, the chief analyst for the food and beverage sector at Industrial Securities, stated that the bottom of the liquor sector has basically been confirmed, with sufficient safety margins and clear directions for marginal improvement. Although inventory destocking will still require time, the worst phase for the industry has already passed. Shen noted that from three perspectives, the current sector is at a value bottom: first, the valuation levels corresponding to the actual performance of liquor companies at their current stock prices are mostly at historically low levels; second, cash flow and net assets provide a safety cushion; third, the medium- to long-term appeal of dividend yields for most liquor companies has increased. "This year's Mid-Autumn Festival peak season will be a key window for testing the fundamentals. If it can be passed smoothly, the turning point for the liquor sector is expected to gradually materialize," Shen further pointed out. In terms of market trends, Shen predicts that beginning in the third quarter of the second half of the year, with continuous improvement in macroeconomic data such as CPI and PPI, consumer confidence warming up, and clear signals of marginal recovery in the industry, the sector is likely to welcome a second phase of valuation repair.
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