Experts: Japan and the U.S. jointly intervening in the yen's exchange rate may find it difficult to reverse the downward trend.
Ma Wei, an expert on American issues at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, stated: In terms of effectiveness, the short-term impact may be quite significant, but when analyzed from a long-term perspective, its effectiveness is questionable. In April of this year, Japan intervened in the exchange rate with over 70 billion USD in a single month, but the rebound in the exchange rate lasted only about a month, and by June, it had risen back above 160. The fundamental reason lies in the significant interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan. Japan's current policy interest rate is only around 1%, while the U.S. has maintained it above 3.5%. At the same time, the Japanese government is continually pushing for fiscal expansion and tax cuts. The market has also been skeptical about Japan's fiscal discipline and the potential for raising interest rates. Although the Federal Reserve did not raise interest rates at the July meeting, the market expects that the U.S. is likely to resume the rate hike process in the next six months, which could again widen the interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan to over 2%. Analyzing from a medium- to long-term perspective, it is difficult for the downward trend of the yen exchange rate to fundamentally change through joint intervention by the two countries.
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