Everbright Futures: The pricing logic in the second half of the year is gradually shifting, and we cautiously hold an optimistic view on gold.

Looking ahead to August, the short-term trend of gold prices will depend on the developments in the US-Iran situation. If conflicts persist or escalate, market sentiment may weaken again, leading to expectations of liquidity risks and potentially poor performance for gold prices. However, if there are substantial breakthroughs in negotiations, gold prices may stabilize in the short term and see a rebound. If both domestic and international financial markets indicate a recovery at that time, it could further confirm this trend. Nonetheless, it is anticipated that, supported by central bank buying and allocation demand, any potential pullback would be relatively limited. Additionally, the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium at the end of August may see Powell outline a medium-term policy framework, and the US CPI data on the 12th will be a key indicator prior to that. Overall, gold is likely to show a firm bottom and a phase of emotional recovery, warranting a cautiously optimistic outlook. The core risk lies in the potential for the US-Iran conflict to push oil prices above $90 per barrel, along with a significant rebound in US inflation data that surpasses expectations. The increasing likelihood of an interest rate hike in September may continue to suppress market sentiment. However, from the perspective of overseas financial markets and oil price performance, there is little support for a comprehensive escalation of the US-Iran conflict.