Shanghai Iron and Steel Association: It is expected that steel prices will mainly fluctuate within a range in the second half of the year.

On July 17, 2026, the "My Steel" mid-year conference and the Steel Industry Chain Collaborative Innovation Forum were held in Beijing. Shanghai Steel Union predicts that steel prices in the second half of this year will mainly fluctuate within a range, making it difficult to see a one-sided trending market. The fluctuation range of prices is expected to be similar to that of the first half of the year. In terms of geopolitical situation, negotiations between the US and Iran continue, but the markets sensitivity to this has decreased. It is expected that oil price fluctuations will gradually move towards rationality, as the inflation premium and energy shortages caused by geopolitical conflicts in the first half of the year subside. On the raw material side, domestic coal mine safety rectification work is gradually coming to an end, and coking coal production is being released in an orderly manner. The tight supply situation of raw materials is gradually easing, and coal and coke prices may rise and then fall, but the price center is significantly higher than in the first half of the year. Iron ore supply remains ample, leading to lower prices; overall costs are relatively stable. In terms of steel supply and demand, end demand for steel in the second half of the year continues to show a moderate recovery trend, with infrastructure construction continuing to support the market and manufacturing demand steadily warming up. At the same time, steel mills will adjust production pace flexibly according to market conditions, continuing the weak supply-demand balance and making it difficult for significant supply-demand mismatches to occur. Overall, the steel market in the second half of the year is balanced in terms of bullish and bearish forces, lacking core variables to drive significant price changes.