CITIC Securities: The worst of the economic data is already behind us.

According to the research report of CITIC Securities, the actual GDP growth rate in the second quarter fell by 0.7 percentage points from the first quarter, but looking at single months, the economic outlook in June has already shown signs of recovery, with industrial production, consumption, and investment all experiencing varying degrees of improvement. From the production side, accelerated export expansion, falling oil prices, and a high economic outlook for the AI industry have led to a significant increase in industrial value-added growth rates, while the growth rate of the service industry production index has also slightly rebounded. From the demand side, the distribution of subsidies, Dragon Boat Festival stocking, and the 618 shopping festival have driven growth in social retail sales above previous levels and expectations; fixed asset investment growth is lower than market expectations, but the decline in monthly growth rate has narrowed. Looking ahead, exports, driven by AI products, are expected to continue to grow at a high rate, while fluctuations in subsidy funds may continue to disrupt consumption growth but resilience remains. The third quarter is often an important window for accelerating the use of counter-cyclical tools throughout the year, and investment is expected to bottom out and rebound, combined with base effects. We expect the actual GDP growth rate in the second half of the year to increase quarter by quarter. Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index (PPI) has already reached its highest point of the year, and it is expected to enter a stage of convergence of the "scissors difference" in the second half of the year, easing profit pressures for some industries in the middle and lower reaches. In terms of macroeconomic policies, considering the current impressive export structure, continuously exceeding expectations, and signs of improvement in domestic demand, we believe that domestic policies in the second half of the year will focus more on accelerating the implementation of existing policy tools and continuously optimizing and upgrading the industrial structure.