The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is close to 90%.

date
16/07/2026
According to the CME "Fed Watch": The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 88.8%, with a probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike of 11.2%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged until September is 51.2%, with a probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike of 44%, and a probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike of 4.7%.