Continuous reduction in production capacity. The center of gravity of pig prices may move upwards in the second half of the year.

Entering July, the long-depressed pig market showed signs of recovery, with spot prices stabilizing and rebounding. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, as of July 10, the domestic and foreign three-element pig market price was 10.9 yuan per kilogram, an increase of 13.54% compared to the end of June. Industry insiders believe that this round of rebound in the pig market is not driven by increased consumption, but rather by a structural market brought about by a shortage of large pigs in inventory. The overall trend of pig production capacity reduction is determined at present, but the intensity and sustainability still need further verification. In addition to factors such as the summer being a slow consumption season, high frozen product inventory, and delayed supply from breeders, it is difficult for pig prices to see a unilateral significant increase in the second half of the year. The overall trend may be one of fluctuating increases, and a true cyclical reversal and trend-based increase may not gradually appear until 2027.