Insiders: Wall Street banks set rules for employees participating in betting on the market forecasts.

According to three informed sources, major Wall Street banks have added provisions regarding market prediction betting to their employee code of conduct, with some banks prohibiting employees from betting on contracts related to financial markets and political events. One source stated that Goldman Sachs recently stated in a memo that its policy prohibits employees from engaging in event-based contracts related to financial markets and political events, as such contracts may create actual or potential conflicts of interest with the bank, its clients, or the broader financial industry. Prediction market platforms provide trading platforms for a wide range of events such as elections, sports, and weather-related contracts, similar to the traditional gambling products offered by betting platforms. In recent years, platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have quickly gained popularity, raising concerns about regulatory oversight before the US midterm elections. Media outlets first reported that repeated violations could lead to disciplinary action, including dismissal, and employees may be required to surrender the profits from illicit trades. The sources stated that these restrictions do not apply to prediction market betting related to sports and entertainment. Regarding Morgan Stanley, one source stated that the bank's employee code of conduct includes provisions about prediction market betting, as well as other trading and investment-related topics.