The pre-season stock replenishment market has peaked, industry insiders say that there is still room for correction in the freight futures market.

The freight index futures, which were soaring in the early stage, have recently slammed on the brakes. Data from Wenhua Finance shows that since reaching a high of 4096 points on June 11, the main continuous contract of the freight index futures has been oscillating lower, hitting a low of 2412 points on July 7, with a cumulative decline of over 40%. Industry insiders believe that the previous strong rise in freight index futures was mainly driven by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, constrained shipping capacity, rising fuel and insurance costs, and pre-season shipping. The recent decline from the highs is related to easing geopolitical risks, new container prices from shipping companies falling short of market expectations, the end of the shipping boom for the 2026 World Cup in the US, Canada, and Mexico, as well as some capacity overflow. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the main trading theme in the market is expected to shift from upward support formed by geopolitical risks and peak season demand to downward pressure due to concentrated capacity release and weakening terminal demand, limiting the upward potential of ocean freight rates, and the mid-term trend is expected to be weaker.