J.P. Morgan: U.S. junk bond default rate hits a new high since early 2024.

On Wednesday, JPMorgan strategists wrote in a client report that the default rate for high-yield corporate bonds in the United States has risen to its highest level since January 2024. Strategists like Nelson Jantzen wrote that the default rate for U.S. high-yield corporate bonds, including distressed debt exchanges, increased by 64 basis points to 2.67% on a face value-weighted basis, the highest level since reaching 2.80% in January 2024. In contrast, the default rate for leverage loans dropped by 38 basis points to 2.29%, the lowest level since reaching 2.26% in March 2023. This is the first time since December 2022 that the default rate for high-yield bonds has exceeded the default rate for leverage loans on a face value-weighted basis. JPMorgan predicts that the default rate for high-yield bonds will be 1.75% in 2026 and will rise to 2.25% in 2027. The default rate for leverage loans is expected to be 3.0% in 2026 and rise to 4.5% in 2027. There were a total of 27 default events in the first half of 2026, amounting to $33.1 billion, a 3% increase compared to the first half of last year.