The LPR has remained unchanged for 13 consecutive months, and the pricing benchmark for loan interest rates is expected to diversify.
On June 22nd, the People's Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Funding Center to announce the latest loan market quotation rate, with a 1-year term at 3.0% and over 5 years at 3.5%, remaining unchanged for 13 consecutive months. Experts stated that the stability of the LPR for the two terms in June was in line with market expectations. One reason is that the main policy interest rates remained unchanged, keeping the basis for the LPR pricing unchanged for the month; on the other hand, from the perspective of maintaining interest rate differentials, the quoting banks lacked the motivation to actively lower their LPR quoting points. "It is expected that with the reform of the interest rate control framework, the mechanism for determining the LPR quoting may gradually shift away from the method of adding points to the 7-day reverse repurchase rate." Ming Ming, Chief Economist at CITIC Securities, stated that the first quarter of 2026 Chinese monetary policy implementation report mentioned overseas examples of evolving from a single loan interest rate benchmark to a more diversified benchmark, possibly indicating that China's loan interest rate pricing may shift from solely following the LPR to referencing treasury bond rates and other more diversified methods in the future. It is expected that in the future, rather than a direct "interest rate cut" based on the LPR, the central bank may focus more on optimizing and reforming the control framework to achieve the goal of lowering the financing cost of the real economy.
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