Barclays: US-Iran agreement may ease Asian central banks' tightening stance.
Barclays stated in a research report that the temporary agreement between the US and Iran has pushed oil prices lower, which may lead central banks in various Asian countries to adopt a more dovish stance in their upcoming interest rate decisions. The bank's economists predict that the central banks of Indonesia and the Philippines will each raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday. Indonesia's central bank is doing so to address the recent weakening of the Indonesian rupiah, while the Philippines' central bank aims to curb rising inflation. However, with some easing in exchange rates and price pressures, the urgency of further tightening monetary policy has decreased, prompting Indonesia's central bank and the Philippines' central bank to potentially shift to cutting interest rates next year to boost economic growth. Economies benefiting from the boom in the artificial intelligence industry are likely to continue raising interest rates, while the further drop in international oil prices will further support their economic growth. Barclays predicts that the Bank of Korea will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its interest rate meetings in June, October, and April of the following year. The Monetary Authority of Singapore already tightened policy in April, and is now inclined to pause adjustments and observe the subsequent trend in inflation.
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