Market Analysis: The market welcomes the peace agreement between the United States and Iran, but it is expected that oil prices will remain high.
Both the stock market and the bond market rose in the Asian session on Monday, while the US dollar fell. This was after the US and Iran reached a peace agreement, agreeing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the US sanctions on Iran. US oil futures fell by more than 4%, S&P 500 index futures rose by about 0.8%, and the US dollar weakened overall. Nick Twidale, Chief Market Strategist at ATFX Global in Sydney, said that the market will take a wait-and-see approach, focusing on how quickly the strait can be reopened and when oil supply can truly return to normal. This will certainly take months rather than weeks. I don't think oil prices will quickly return to $70 in the short term. Mahjabeen Zaman, Head of Forex Research at ANZ Bank in Sydney, said that this positive news was already expected and the market had been slowly trending upwards and cautiously optimistic, with some positive sentiment already factored in. Looking at the cyclical forex trends, I believe there is still room for upward movement at the current levels. Today, we may see a drop below $80 due to the heightened market sentiment, but the market may then realize that the terms of this agreement may not be as favorable. We also believe that simply due to the damage to infrastructure, oil prices will remain at relatively higher levels.
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