Lates News

In May, US CPI data showed inflation soaring to a three-year high, but the moderate rise in core prices eased Wall Street's concerns about rate hikes. Today's CPI data and tomorrow's PPI index are expected to influence the Federal Reserve's policy stance, which will be announced at the Federal Reserve meeting hosted by Powell for the first time in a week. According to CME Federal Reserve observations, before the release of CPI inflation data, the market had estimated a 70% probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates by the end of 2026. However, the market believes that it is unlikely for the Federal Reserve to raise rates at next week's meeting, with only a 13% probability of a rate hike at the July meeting. The focus in the short term is whether the Federal Reserve will clearly shift from a loose preference stance to a neutral or tight preference stance at the upcoming meeting. This week's CPI and PPI inflation data, as well as progress in US-Iran negotiations, may affect the balance between neutrality and tightening.