Before the release of the CPI data, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in June is 98.2%.

date
10/06/2026
According to CME's "Federal Reserve Watch": the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until June is 98.2%, with a 1.8% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until July is 85.8%, with a 12.6% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike and a 1.6% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut.