On the eve of the non-farm employment major exam, bearish forces dominate the US bond market.

date
03/06/2026
The bond trader insists on betting on the rise in yields, even though some of the most aggressive positions have been reduced. The crucial US employment data to be released on Friday may further strengthen the market's expectations of a Fed rate hike. Recently, the US bond market has been dominated by bearish forces. Rising oil prices and inflation persistently above target levels have driven benchmark bond yields sharply higher, prompting traders to increase their bets on the fastest rate hike this year. Despite the potential ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, improving market sentiment, traders overall still maintain a defensive posture. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond has fallen from a high of close to 4.69% two weeks ago to below 4.5%, but is still significantly higher than the lows reached earlier this year. US bank strategists wrote in their latest weekly report: "Market positions still lean towards being short." They added, "Even though momentum is not as clear as before," positions should still lean towards higher yields.