CITIC Securities: Supply disruptions have become a reality, patiently waiting for demand improvement to drive aluminum price increases.

The Zhongxin Securities Research Report pointed out that this week the "shipping factor" disrupted commodity prices, but overall still maintained a high level of volatility. There are two factors that will drive commodity prices higher in the future: supply disruptions, such as persistent shipping disruptions, the remaining electrolytic aluminum production capacity in the Middle East is at risk, and whether China's production capacity shutdown will be expanded; shipping disruptions, breaking the suppression of high oil prices, high inflation, high US bond yields, and no interest rate cuts, stimulating the financial attributes of commodities. Electrolytic aluminum production reduction has become a reality, waiting for consumption to drive inventory faster. On the equity side, there was a push from high valuations to low valuations mid-week, non-ferrous metals attempted a rebound, but a trend has not yet formed, and more strength needs to be accumulated.