Barclays maintains its forecast for Brent crude to reach $100 per barrel by 2026.

Barclays Bank released a research report on Friday, stating that the bank maintains its forecast for the average Brent crude oil price in 2026 at $100 per barrel, but the upside risk in oil prices has increased. During Friday's trading session, the price of Brent crude oil futures was around $105 per barrel. There are doubts in the market about groundbreaking progress in the US-Iran talks, and the key Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Before the war, about 20% of global energy transportation routes passed through this strait. Due to geopolitical conflicts, oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, and Kuwait have collectively withdrawn 14 million barrels of crude oil per day from the market, accounting for 14% of global supply. The bank stated that inventory data shows a daily supply gap of 6 to 8 million barrels of crude oil, and US crude oil inventories are approaching their lowest levels since 2020. Barclays pointed out that even if the Strait of Hormuz were to fully reopen immediately, even in the most optimistic scenario, the base stock of crude oil would still be about 20 million barrels short of historical low levels. The bank added that overall demand for crude oil is resilient; if the supply side quickly returns to normal, industrial-related end-use oil demand is highly likely to strengthen.