HSBC: Even if the US and Iran reach a peace agreement, more central banks may still raise interest rates.

HSBC economists expect that even if the US and Iran reach a peace agreement in the short term, more central banks will raise policy rates. Janet Henry and Bethan Ellis stated in a report that even if the Strait of Hormuz quickly reopens, the risks of supply shocks and their impact on global inflation and growth will persist. They said that raising interest rates now is more for credibility. The central banks of Australia and Norway had already been addressing inflation issues before the conflict and hope that the rate hike in May will be the last. They suggested that the European Central Bank and the Bank of England may start raising rates in June or July, and if the Federal Reserve raises rates, more emerging market economies may tighten policies. HSBC expects the Philippines to further raise rates, and currently predicts that India and Indonesia will raise rates in the second half of the year.