The Chinese banking industry is entering a new era of narrative. There is significant differentiation in the growth of bank assets.
When "abandoning the scale mentality" has become a frequently mentioned statement in the recent performance briefings of listed banks, another set of data is telling a different story. Data from the National Financial Regulatory Authority shows that from the end of 2021 to the end of March 2026, the proportion of total assets of state-owned major banks in the banking financial institutions has increased from 40.1% to 43.8%; the proportion of city commercial banks has increased from 13.1% to over 14%, with the majority of the growth concentrated in the top city commercial banks; the proportion of joint-stock banks has fallen from 18% to 16%, a cumulative decline of nearly 2 percentage points. The differentiation in market share is similarly stark as of the end of March this year, the market share of joint-stock banks for loans has dropped to 18.9%, a decrease of 3.1 percentage points from the end of 2021. At the same time, state-owned major banks have increased by 3 percentage points. Joint-stock banks are contracting, state-owned major banks are expanding, and top city commercial banks are sprinting. These three completely different narratives of scale are emerging in the same cycle of low interest rates.
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