Lates News

The CITIC Securities research report stated that from a fundamental perspective, the Federal Reserve still needs to cut interest rates by about 2 times. This is one of the reasons why we are more optimistic than the market about interest rate cuts. As long as oil prices do not sustain above $100 until the end of the year, driving down inflation due to a high base will provide room for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. However, in practical operations, cooperation between oil prices and Trump is necessary. The ongoing standoff in Iran that has kept oil prices high, as well as Powell's concerns about the investigation causing the Federal Reserve to become divided, are not problems that can be solved by Powell alone since taking over in June. The key lies with Trump - if he quickly reaches a compromise and completely ends the investigation into Powell, the prospects for a rate cut will gradually open up.