Fitch Ratings analyst Huang Xiaoting: The trend of international oil price moving upwards is clear, but the transmission of domestic prices is relatively mild.

On April 21st, at the scene of the "2026 Fitch Sees China" event, Huang Xiaoting, senior director of Fitch Ratings Asia-Pacific corporate ratings, stated that with ongoing geopolitical conflicts, an upward trend in international oil prices has become a more certain trend. Under the regulation of the refined oil price management mechanism, the overall speed and magnitude of the transmission of international oil prices to domestic residents are relatively mild, mitigating the impact on residents' purchasing power. In contrast, price transmission to the industrial end is more market-oriented. Against the background of weak end demand, midstream and downstream enterprises may find it difficult to fully pass on the additional costs, putting pressure on their profitability. Fitch Ratings conducted a scenario analysis of oil price trends in the early stages of the conflict: if the conflict eases relatively quickly, the price of oil in 2026 is expected to remain around $70 per barrel; if there is a temporary blockade in the Strait of Hormuz for about 3 months, the average price for the year may rise to around $100 per barrel; in an extreme scenario where the blockade lasts for more than 6 months, oil prices may rise to $130-170 per barrel, leading to an average annual price close to $120 per barrel. Although the probability of such extreme scenarios is relatively low, energy prices are unlikely to return to the previous low range in the short term.