Sinotrust Securities: Maintain Guizhou Maotai "Buy" rating, facing pressure, firmly reform.

Guotai Junan Securities research report pointed out that Guizhou Maotai is expected to achieve total operating income of 172.05 billion yuan in 2025, a decrease of 1.20% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 82.32 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.53% year-on-year. In the fourth quarter, sales revenue decreased significantly and sales expenses increased significantly. Cash collections for the year remained stable, but cash flow was greatly affected by fluctuations in deposit business. It is expected that with the advancement of market-oriented reforms, channel profits will return and sales expenses that the company needs to invest in may continue to rise. Due to the impact of the inversion of product prices, consumer subscription willingness has decreased, with Maotai's sales revenue reaching 13.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of -34.92%. Since the company adjusted its pricing system earlier this year, Maotai has accelerated its sales volume, and it is expected that the proportion of direct sales in 2026 may further increase rapidly. It is believed that in the face of industry adjustment pressure, the company will continue to reach more consumer groups through market-oriented reforms, maintain a tight supply and demand balance, and the prices of core products are expected to increase in sync with inflation in the medium to long term, thereby achieving sustainable and stable growth in income and profits. It is forecasted that the diluted earnings per share of the company for the years 2026-2028 will be 69.33 yuan, 72.45 yuan, and 75.52 yuan respectively, and the company's "buy" rating is maintained.