Research shows that gambling platforms are more accurate in predicting corporate profits than Wall Street analysts.

Every quarter, a large number of analysts on Wall Street will build financial models, analyze alternative data, and strive to contact company executives in an attempt to predict corporate earnings. Recent research shows that anonymous bettors on Polymarket may be able to compete with them. According to a report from Wolfe Research, when Polymarket users bet that a company's earnings performance may fall short of expectations, the probability of this bet being correct is 44%, more than double the historical benchmark level of 18%. On the other hand, when bettors are very bullish on a company's earnings exceeding expectations, the probability of this scenario occurring is as high as 90%, surpassing the regular level of 81%.