Goldman Sachs: China CITIC Securities' preliminary first quarter performance is strong, reaffirming its "buy" rating on H shares.

Goldman Sachs released a research report stating that China Jinmao's preliminary performance in the first quarter of this year was strong, guiding that the net profit attributable to shareholders in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to be between 3.4 billion and 3.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 65% to 90%, far exceeding Goldman Sachs' expectation of 27% to 46%. However, the bank believes that although industry data is largely reflected in market expectations, China Jinmao's outstanding performance is more likely due to its strong performance in Hong Kong operations, as Hong Kong contributes approximately 30% of the group's revenue, and the Hong Kong IPO market continues to grow strongly, with a year-on-year increase of 489%. Considering that China Jinmao's M&A integration is still ongoing, the bank believes that strong profit performance will help boost the stock price, thereby narrowing the discount between the stock price and the exercise price of cash options, and reducing the probability of cash options being exercised. Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs recommends focusing on the following key points: 1) The second board meeting expected to be held in April is likely to alleviate market concerns about the uncertainty of the M&A transaction itself, thus helping to improve valuation; 2) The detailed distribution of performance in the first quarter of 2026, especially the growth trajectory of China Jinmao's competitive Hong Kong operations and wealth management business. The bank reiterates its "buy" rating on China Jinmao's H shares, with a 12-month target price of 28.15 Hong Kong dollars, based on a forecasted PE ratio of 11 times in 2027.