The international crude oil market is gradually returning to fundamental pricing, with inventory consumption continuing to push up oil prices.

Currently, the international crude oil market is gradually returning to fundamental pricing from the panic trading that "overpriced oil" in March. The most intuitive data shows that the New York WTI futures contract has fallen by about 60% from its peak, the domestic crude oil options volatility index has halved from its peak, and the scale of funds in crude oil futures has decreased by more than 40%. However, a return to fundamental pricing does not necessarily mean that oil prices will fall. On the contrary, the blockade of Iranian ports by the United States could accelerate the depletion of global oil inventories. UBS Group believes that if the strait remains closed until the end of April, international oil prices could reach $130 per barrel, and the risk of a global economic recession will significantly increase.