The first US inflation report reflecting the "war premium" in the Middle East will be released tonight. Industry insiders widely expect that the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) will record the largest month-on-month increase in nearly four years.

At 20:30 tonight Beijing time, the US Department of Labor will announce the highly anticipated CPI data for March, which will also be the first US inflation report reflecting the "war premium" in the Middle East. Currently, industry insiders generally expect that due to the war between the US and Iran pushing up oil prices, and the continued transmission effect of tariffs, the US consumer price index for March is likely to record the largest month-on-month increase in nearly four years, which will further weaken hopes of interest rate cuts this year. According to a survey of economists by the media, economists expect the US CPI report to be released on Friday showing that the US inflation rate for March will increase by 0.9% compared to the previous month. This expected month-on-month increase of 0.9% is a quite remarkable number in itself. It is worth noting that since 1981, the US has had a month-on-month CPI increase of 0.9% or more only 16 times, making it the largest month-on-month increase since June 2022 when the US CPI year-on-year increase exceeded 9%. In terms of year-on-year comparison, economists predict that this month-on-month increase will push March CPI year-on-year to rise by 3.3%, also reaching the highest level since April 2024. In February, the US CPI year-on-year increase was 2.4% indicating a difference of nearly one percentage point between the previous value and current market expectations.