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Barclays debt research analyst Ajay Rajadhyaksha pointed out in a report that despite the ceasefire in the Middle East conflict, it will leave a profound impact. He wrote that the ceasefire between the US and Iran is not a "refund" - the past six weeks of fighting will eventually come at a cost. Barclays' baseline forecast for the average price of Brent crude oil in 2026 is $85 per barrel. He added that the bond market is still pricing in the European Central Bank raising interest rates two or more times this year, while American clients' "safety margin" has narrowed compared to February. However, he noted that given the current ceasefire situation, customer feedback shows a sense of relief and a willingness to return to fundamental analysis.
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