The ADB report says that conflict in the Middle East is impacting the economies of developing countries in the Asia-Pacific region.
The Asian Development Bank released the "Asian Development Outlook 2026" report on the 10th, stating that the Middle East conflict is escalating global geopolitical risks, and the economic downturn risks faced by emerging economies in the Asia-Pacific region are constantly increasing. The report points out that although the direct trade with Middle Eastern economies is limited, emerging economies in Asia-Pacific are still highly vulnerable to the spillover effects of the global energy market, trade and transportation networks, and financial environment. Among them, most of the fertilizers, urea, and ammonia supplied by the Middle East are transported through the Strait of Hormuz. Disruptions in production and transportation have led to tight supplies, price increases, and higher agricultural costs, which may subsequently push up food prices. In addition, disruptions in the transportation of core chip raw materials such as helium, sulfur, and petrochemical products could also affect the semiconductor industry. The ADB predicts that if the situation in the Middle East stabilizes earlier, the economic growth rates of emerging economies in Asia-Pacific in 2026 and 2027 will slow down from 5.4% in 2025 to 5.1%, and the inflation rate will rise from 3.0% in 2025 to 3.6% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. The report points out that if the chaotic situation in the Middle East continues until the third quarter of this year, the economic growth rates of emerging economies in Asia-Pacific in 2026 and 2027 may slow down to 4.7% and 4.8% respectively, and the inflation rate will rise to 5.6% in 2026.
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