Lates News

According to a report from Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, concerns over the US-Iran conflict since March and the subsequent blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have triggered a risk aversion sentiment throughout the entire market. Apart from oil and agricultural products, most asset classes have declined, leading the market to worry about the possibility of stagflation. We believe that the undeniable impact of supply shocks may drag down the overall economic growth. However, if the Strait of Hormuz gradually resumes normal navigation, the rising geopolitical risks could exacerbate the divergence of the K-shaped economy, leading to hotter investments and colder consumption and employment. Against the backdrop of accelerated substitution by AI and the endogenous cooling of the labor market, it is difficult for inflation in resources and capital goods to form a "wage-inflation" spiral. In this sense, we believe that the mainstream narrative of global stagflation may be exaggerated. We reiterate our view since the beginning of the year that in an environment of deepening K-shaped economy, recovering liquidity from a low point, and sustained large-scale fiscal stimulus, the globally cyclical economic cycle driven by investment is expected to restart its upward trend. The continuous rebalancing of global funds in sectors, asset classes, and regions will support the expansion of the global capital spending cycle, benefiting a bundle of real assets and emerging markets.