CITIC Securities: Continue to emphasize that the profits of leading oil transportation companies in 2026 are expected to reach a new high.

The escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran has greatly increased the "energy security" demands of major consumer countries, and the asset nature of oil tanker fleets is gradually shifting from "low-return strong cyclical" to "essential strategic assets". The passage capacity of the Strait of Hormuz remains a key variable, and adjustments to the supply chain in the short term have resulted in longer transportation distances, with US strategic reserves driving up TD22 freight rates. Once the passage capacity of the strait partially recovers, the demand for replenishing reserves is also expected to become a catalyst for the upturn in the cycle. The recent increase in freight rates for Aframax and others is mainly due to a significant increase in regional trade arbitrage demand, with the bottleneck in the supply chain being mainly in the maritime sector. A new short-term balance in the supply chain has emerged against the backdrop of disruptions in passage through the strait, with freight rates for shipments from the Gulf of Mexico and the Red Sea to the Far East in April expected to be in the range of 150,000 to 200,000. It is reiterated that oil shipping leaders are expected to achieve record profits by 2026.