Before the non-farm payrolls are announced, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in April is 99.5%.

date
03/04/2026
According to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 0.5%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 99.5%. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by a cumulative 25 basis points by June is 7.8%, with a 91.7% probability of keeping rates unchanged, and a 0.5% probability of raising rates by a cumulative 25 basis points.
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