The US crude oil reverse price difference hit a record high, with the market betting on tight short-term supply.

Next month's oil futures delivery premium over the following month's contract hit a record high on Thursday, as traders rushed to buy oil after U.S. President Trump vowed to continue to pressure Iran. This "backwardation" structure indicates traders expect short-term supply to be tighter than in the future. Backwardation refers to when the price of a near-month delivery contract is higher than that of a distant-month contract. Intraday, May delivery of West Texas Intermediate futures at one point traded $16.70 per barrel higher than the June contract. The May contract reached a high of $113.97 per barrel on Thursday, settling at $111.42 per barrel. Middle East conflicts have daily reduced global oil supply by millions of barrels, pushing energy prices to multi-year highs and causing fuel shortages in countries reliant on the Strait of Hormuz for oil and gas shipments. Trump vowed in a Wednesday evening speech to deliver "overwhelming force" against Iran in the coming weeks, but did not present a specific plan to reopen the Strait. He has stated that other countries should take the lead in keeping the Strait open for navigation. While near-month oil prices have surged, prices for delivery six months and a year in the future have also risen, although to a lesser extent. However, the price increase raises the likelihood of producers restarting drilling rigs. Oil futures for October delivery currently hover around $73.64, up 13% from before the outbreak of war at the end of February. This is a key index for companies deciding whether to increase drilling. "Later this year, you may see some U.S. operators start drilling and completing more wells," said Andy Hendricks, CEO of Patterson-UTI PTEN.O, one of the largest onshore drilling contractors in the U.S. "The current trend in oil prices is not really the core driver for U.S. producers. You have to understand what the price of oil will be in six to nine months." Energy services company Baker Hughes said on Thursday that the number of U.S. oil drilling rigs increased by 2 this week, reaching 411. However, Dallas Fed President Kaplan said on Thursday that U.S. oil producers are unlikely to increase production in the short term because they "need to be convinced that high oil prices will be sustained for a period of time." Kaplan said she has not heard any news of a "substantial increase in production in the short term." Bryan Sheffield, founder of private company Formentera Partners, said the oil price for May 2027 delivery is only around $68.43 per barrel, more than $40 lower than near-month oil futures, causing hesitation among drillers.